陈效科,陈翀,王朝信.2014年世界杯足球赛控球率与比赛胜负的相关性[J].北京体育大学学报,2015,38(1):115-119+123.
2014年世界杯足球赛控球率与比赛胜负的相关性
Correlation Between Possession Rate and Competition Result in 2014 FIFA World Cup
投稿时间:2014-12-01  
DOI:
中文关键词:  关键词:世界杯  足球赛  控球率  胜负关系
英文关键词:Key words: FIFA World Cup  soccer game  possession rate  competition result
基金项目:山东省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(编号:J13WK01)。
作者单位
陈效科 北京体育大学北京 100084 
陈翀 北京体育大学北京 100084 
王朝信 菏泽学院体育系山东 菏泽274000 
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中文摘要:
      摘要:当前足球比赛控球率与比赛胜负关系尚未被证实,为了探讨足球比赛球队控球率与比赛胜负的相关性,主要运用专家访谈法、软件分析法和数理分析法对2014届世界杯足球赛各支球队控球率与比赛胜负、进球数、射门次数和射正次数的相关性进行统计分析,结果表明控球率除了对射门次数有显著相关性外,对其它比赛胜负关系指标均没有相关性;理论上分析控球率通过射门次数可以影响进球数,从而达到与比赛胜负的相关性,但是需要处理好球队打法、运动员的射门能力和球星的个人能力这些因素;效率足球风格超越了桑巴足球风格成为世界发展的主流。建议不要盲目追求高控球率,通过提高球队的进攻效果和稳固的防守来增加比赛获胜的几率;中前场控球率与进球数成正相关,要加强中前场球的控制。
英文摘要:
      Abstract: The correlation between possession rate and competition result has not yet been confirmed in present soccer competition. This paper analyzed all teams’ possession rate, competition result, goal number, shooting number, and shots on goal in 2014 FIFA World Cup by the methods of expert interview, software analysis and mathematical analysis to discuss the correlation. The results showed that there is no correlation between possession rate and competition result except with shooting number. Theoretically, possession rate can impact goal number by shooting number, then have some kind of correlation to competition result, but play style, athlete’s shooting ability and star player’s personal ability are needed to deal with. Utilitarian style of soccer has replaced the samba style of soccer into mainstream of world soccer. We recommend that do not pursue high possession rate blindly, but pay more attention to improve offense and defense efficiencies, and control the up and center field because the possession rate of it has positive correlation to goal number.
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